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UKCP18 – UK’s future climate

UKCP18 – UK’s future climate 28 November 2018

The UK’s most comprehensive picture yet of how the climate could change over the next century has been launched (via The Met Office)

The UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) include:

  • UK’s most comprehensive projections of climate change 
  • Data gives most detailed picture yet of temperature, rainfall and sea level rise over next century
  • Cutting–edge science to help businesses and homes plan for the future

UKCP-1

Using the latest science from the Met Office and around the world, the UK Climate Projections 2018 illustrate a range of future climate scenarios until 2100 – showing increasing summer temperatures, more extreme weather and rising sea levels are all on the horizon and urgent international action is needed.

To help homes and businesses plan for the future, the results set out a range of possible outcomes over the next century based on different rates of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. The high emission scenario shows:

  • Summer temperatures could be up to 5.4 °C hotter by 2070, while winters could be up to 4.2 °C warmer
  • The chance of a summer as hot as 2018 is around 50 % by 2050
  • Sea levels in London could rise by up to 1.15 metres by 2100
  • Average summer rainfall could decrease by up to 47 % by 2070, while there could be up to 35 % more precipitation in winter

UKCP18-2

Sea levels are projected to rise over the 21st century and beyond under all emission scenarios – meaning we can expect to see an increase in both the frequency and magnitude of extreme water levels around the UK coastline. Even in the low emission scenario, the projections show the UK’s average yearly temperature could be up to 2.3 °C higher by the end of the century.

The UK already leads the world in tackling climate change – with emissions reduced by more than 40% since 1990. However these projections show a future we could face without further action.

UKCP18 can now be used as a tool to guide decision–making and boost resilience – whether that’s through increasing flood defences, designing new infrastructure or adjusting ways of farming for drier summers.

Read more via The Met Office…